[mdlug] Interesting information about Windows "7"

[Ingles, Raymond]

> From: Robert Adkins

> As an advocate, it is also important to keep an eye on upcoming products that 
> could threaten that advocacy.

 I'm a bit more relaxed about the competition, for a couple reasons. First,
Linux is effectively immortal. There's no 'single point of failure' for Linux
and the source code will never, ever go away. So long as people are interested
(which will happen so long as Linux provides value) that source will be
maintained and developed. A system like OS/2 can only keep going so long as
the sponsoring corporation stays interested in it. Linux doesn't have to worry
about that, at *all*.

 Closely related, Linux has also reached a critical-mass point where it is
extremely valuable to a large number of people in a broad set of contexts.
For example, it's almost always the first OS to ever boot on new CPU hardware,
simply because it's available and portable, and hardware developers need a
real OS to test with. But once they've done that porting work, there's no
reason to keep it secret and every reason to distribute it, since that can
help drive sales of the new CPU.

 Since Linux is effectively immortal - since it will never, ever, go away -
its competition must forever devote resources to keeping it from spreading.
A bit like the pumps that run continuously to keep Manhattan's subways from
flooding, or a 'resevoir of infection' that keeps reinfecting a community. :->
That's a losing battle, long-term. Look at the server market. There was never
a "year of Linux on the server", it just kept growing, gradually, rarely
giving ground and almost always taking a bit here, a bit there... until it's
become a very major part of the server market and is an entirely
uncontroversial choice.

 Microsoft has real problems coming up. More and more apps are web-based,
and more and more of those are browser-neutral. The main thing keeping them
on corporate desktops is Office, and that barrier is eroding - the various
open-source office suites are improving dramatically, and are (at *least*)
sufficient for more and more people. Home users, for example, need very
little that Linux doesn't already provide. (My parents have a greeting-card
program, for example - that's their last Windows holdover.)

 Games? Moving more and more to consoles. I'm a bit sad to see the PC
gaming world shrinking, but there's no denying that it's on the decline.
I'm not sure it'll ever go away, but it's certainly not going to be
enough to keep people on Windows forever.

 The "potential barrier" keeping people in the Windows world is lowering,
and more and more people will 'tunnel through' over time. I don't think there
will be a 'year of the Linux desktop' any more than there was a 'year' in the
server business; it'll just gain a little ground here, a little ground there,
and eventually it'll be seen as simply a good option among others. Microsoft
can drag that out for a while, but not forever.

 Sincerely,

 Ray Ingles                                         (313) 227-2317

 "Choice, flexibility and cost are really the driving factors [for
 Linux adoption]. And Microsoft would have to stop being Microsoft
          to ever compete with that combination." - emkey
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