[mdlug] A big opportunity for Linux?

[Ingles, Raymond]

> From: Michael Rudas

> Even if this is off by a substantial amount, at the very least this is
> REALLY embarrassing to MS.  The number of IT pros willing to look at
> alternatives (including Linux) is heartening.

 Yeah, MS painted themselves into a corner here. Vista is *shockingly* hungry for
resources, and doesn't really offer any substantial advantages over the previous
version, XP. This holds for *both* of Windows' main markets, 'office workers' and
'games'. I don't recall OEM's ever before demanding the ability to ship the old
version of Windows (i.e. XP) instead of the new one. (They can't count on Moore's
Law to help them too much, either... PC specs have hit a level where even a cheap
PC has the capacity to do the kinds of things most people want PCs to do. That
means the price for Windows is a significant, noticeable part of the total price.)

 MS has sunk a lot of money into Vista, and bet a lot of their future technology
and marketing on it. If it doesn't take hold, a lot of their other strategies (e.g.
media PCs and such) become irrelevant. They can't afford to put too much effort into
XP support lest it steal oxygen from Vista takeup... and Vista takeup is already
wheezing badly. But if they don't support XP, particularly security-wise, it will
drive people away from XP. And since they don't want Vista, they will look at other
alternatives... which are quite mature and capable of handling the needs of the vast
majority of users.

 So... it'll be interesting. Expect MS to fast-track the next version, but their
development culture and codebase just is not suited to 'fast' development. They're
targeting 2009 I hear, but expect 2010 at *absolute minimum*, and that's only if
they dump features.

 Sincerely,

 Ray Ingles                                          (313) 227-2317

 "[B]eing able to break security doesn't make you a hacker any more
 than being able to hotwire cars makes you an automotive engineer."
                     - Eric Scott Raymond
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